Recap
✅ The SPX 5000 and IWM 193 levels I shared in my forecast was 🎯
New 52-Week Highs vs New 52-Week Lows
NYSE New 52-Week Highs: 5 vs New 52-Week Lows: 25
Nasdaq New 52-Week Highs: 12 vs New 52-Week Lows: 120
Tech continues to see more lows than highs
McClellan Oscillator doesn’t drop more red
New Highs - New Lows says a bounce is coming
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Today
The market sold off because Powell said rates have to stay here for longer—as I said, rate cuts do not matter. Rate hikes do and if the Fed keeps rates here for longer, it is no problem as the economy is growing and income of companies are growing as well.
If I am right that rate cuts do not matter, then the market will make new highs after this Macro FUD and rates here for longer narrative is fully priced in.
Golden Path
Quite bullish for the Age of AI economy
More Golden Path
And again, Golden Path (I still believe supply side dynamics is going to help bring inflation down).
I do not think inflation is going to surge to the upside based on the data
Energy prices do need stop rising though
We saw a similar reading in early 2024.
Normally when majority economists agree—it is time to be cautious because a lot this optimism is priced in, but the issue is bull market tops are almost impossible to call.
No China meltdown is quite positive news
If US yields are going up for this reason, it’s not good news at all—I will discuss more once the get closer any debt crisis.
Fed Beige Book
The report shows that most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts experienced little or no change in economic activity compared to the previous reporting period.
3 districts reported modest growth and 1 noted a moderate decline
Consumer spending met or exceeded expectations in most districts during the holiday season
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